![\"Pakistan\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.khanfactor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/pakistan.jpg?w=640\")
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Introduction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n As the purported assassination of Osama bin Laden has placed the focus on Pakistan, it is vital to assess the changing role of Pakistan in broad geostrategic terms, and in particular, of the changing American strategy toward Pakistan. The recently reported assassination was a propaganda ploy aimed at targeting Pakistan. To understand this, it is necessary to examine how America has, in recent years, altered its strategy in Pakistan in the direction of destabilization. In short, Pakistan is an American target. The reason: Pakistan\u2019s growing military and strategic ties to China, America\u2019s primary global strategic rival. In the \u2018Great Game\u2019 for global hegemony, any country that impedes America\u2019s world primacy \u2013 even one as historically significant to America as Pakistan \u2013 may be sacrificed upon the altar of war. <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Part 1 of \u2018Pakistan in Pieces\u2019 examines the changing views of the American strategic community \u2013 particularly the military and intelligence circles \u2013 towards Pakistan. In particular, there is a general acknowledgement that Pakistan will very likely continue to be destabilized and ultimately collapse. What is not mentioned in these assessments, however, is the role of the military and intelligence communities in making this a reality; a veritable self-fulfilling prophecy. This part also examines the active on the ground changes in American strategy in Pakistan, with increasing military incursions into the country. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span>In December of 2000, the CIA released a report of global trends to the year 2015, which stated that by 2015, \u201cPakistan will be more fractious, isolated, and dependent on international financial assistance.\u201d[1] Further, it was predicted, Pakistan:<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military \u2013 once Pakistan\u2019s most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government\u2019s control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi.[2]<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The report further analyzed the trends developing in relation to the Pakistan-India standoff in the region:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The threat of major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent, prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. India\u2019s conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi\u2019s superior economic position.[3] <\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In 2005, the Times of India reported on a US National Intelligence Council report, written in conjunction with the CIA, which predicted a \u201cYugoslavia-like fate\u201d for Pakistan, saying that, \u201cby year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation.\u201d[4]<\/p>\n \u00a0In November of 2008, the US National Intelligence Council released a report, \u201cGlobal Trends 2025,\u201d in which they outlined major trends in the world by the year 2025. When it came to Pakistan, the report stated that, \u201cOngoing low-intensity clashes between India and Pakistan continue to raise the specter that such events could escalate to a broader conflict between those nuclear powers.\u201d[5] It stated that Pakistan \u201cwill be at risk of state failure.\u201d[6] In examining potential failed states, the report stated that:<\/span><\/p>\n [Y]outh bulges, deeply rooted conflicts, and limited economic prospects are likely to keep Palestine, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and others in the high-risk category.\u00a0 <\/span>Spillover from turmoil in these states and potentially others increases the chance that moves elsewhere in the region toward greater prosperity and political stability will be rocky.[7]<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The report referred to Pakistan as a \u201cwildcard\u201d and stated that if it is \u201cunable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line [separating Pakistan from Afghanistan], maximizing Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan.\u201d[8]<\/span><\/p>\n In January of 2009, a Pentagon report analyzing geopolitical trends of significance to the US military over the next 25 years, reported that Pakistan could face a \u201crapid and sudden\u201d collapse. It stated that, \u201cSome forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons,\u201d and as such, \u201cthat \u2018perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger.\u201d[9]<\/span><\/p>\n A top adviser to former President George Bush and current President Obama warned in April of 2009, that Pakistan could collapse within months, and that, \u201cWe have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we’re calling the war on terror now.\u201d The adviser and consultant, David Kilcullen, explained that this would be unlike the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, which each had a population of over 30 million, whereas \u201cPakistan has [187] million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control.\u201d[10] <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span>Target: Pakistan<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Going back to the later years of the Bush administration, it is apparent that the US strategy in Pakistan was already changing in seeing it increasingly as a target for military operations as opposed to simply a conduit. In August of 2007, newly uncovered documents revealed that the US military \u201cgave elite units broad authority\u201d in 2004, \u201cto pursue suspected terrorists into Pakistan, with no mention of telling the Pakistanis in advance.\u201d[11] <\/span><\/p>\n In November of 2007, an op-ed in the New York Times stated categorically that, \u201cthe United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss,\u201d and that, \u201cwe need to think \u2014 now \u2014 about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.\u201d The authors, Frederick Kagan and Michael O\u2019Hanlon are both well-known strategists and scholars at the American Enterprise Institute and Brookings Institution, two of the most prominent and influential think tanks in the United States. While stating that Pakistan\u2019s leaders are still primarily moderate and friendly to the US, \u201cAmericans felt similarly about the shah\u2019s regime in Iran until it was too late,\u201d referring to the outbreak of the Iranian Revolution in 1979. They warn:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The most likely possible dangers are these: a complete collapse of Pakistani government rule that allows an extreme Islamist movement to fill the vacuum; a total loss of federal control over outlying provinces, which splinter along ethnic and tribal lines; or a struggle within the Pakistani military in which the minority sympathetic to the Taliban and Al Qaeda try to establish Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism.[12]<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0They state that the military solutions are \u201cdaunting\u201d as Pakistan is a nation of 187 million people, roughly five times the size of Iraq. They wrote that, \u201cestimates suggest that a force of more than a million troops would be required for a country of this size,\u201d which led them to conclude, \u201cThus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces.\u201d They suggested one plan would be to deploy Special Forces \u201cwith the limited goal of preventing Pakistan\u2019s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hand.\u201d However, they admit that, \u201ceven pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate.\u201d Another option, they contend:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span>would involve supporting the core of the Pakistani armed forces as they sought to hold the country together in the face of an ineffective government, seceding border regions and Al Qaeda and Taliban assassination attempts against the leadership. This would require a sizable combat force \u2014 not only from the United States, but ideally also other Western powers and moderate Muslim nations.[13]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The authors concluded, saying that any state decline in Pakistan would likely be gradual, therefore allowing the US to have time to respond, and placed an emphasis on securing Pakistan\u2019s nuclear arsenal and combating militants. They finished the article with the warning: \u201cPakistan may be the next big test.\u201d[14]<\/span><\/p>\n In December of 2007, the Asia Times Online ran a story about the US plan to rid Pakistan of President Musharraf, and that the US and the West, more broadly, had begun a strategy aimed at toppling Pakistan\u2019s military. As part of this, the US launched a media campaign aimed at demonizing Pakistan\u2019s military establishment. At this time, Benazir Bhutto was criticizing the ISI, suggesting they needed a dramatic restructuring, and at the same time, reports were appearing in the US media blaming the ISI for funding and providing assistance to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. While much of this is documented, the fact that it suddenly emerged as talking points with several western officials and in the media does suggest a turn-around against a long-time ally.[15] <\/span><\/p>\n Both Democratic and Republican politicians were making statements that Pakistan represented a greater threat than Iran, and then-Senator (now Vice President) Joseph Biden suggested that the United States needed to put soldiers on the ground in Pakistan in cooperation with the \u201cinternational community.\u201d Biden said that, \u201cWe should be in there,\u201d and \u201cwe should be supplying tens of millions of dollars to build new schools to compete with the madrassas. We should be in there building democratic institutions. We should be in there, and get the rest of the world in there, giving some structure to the emergence of, hopefully, the reemergence of a democratic process.\u201d[16] <\/span><\/p>\n In American policy-strategy circles, officials openly began discussing the possibility of Pakistan breaking up into smaller states, and increasing discussion that Musharraf was going to be \u201cremoved,\u201d which obviously happened. As the Asia Times stated:<\/span><\/p>\n Another worrying thing is how US officials are publicly signaling to the Pakistanis that Bhutto has their backing as the next leader of the country. Such signals from Washington are not only a kiss of death for any public leader in Pakistan, but the Americans also know that their actions are inviting potential assassins to target Bhutto.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0If she is killed in this way, there won’t be enough time to find the real culprit, but what’s certain is that unprecedented international pressure will be placed on Islamabad while everyone will use their local assets to create maximum internal chaos in the country.[17]<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Of course, this subsequently happened in Pakistan. As the author of the article pointed out with startlingly accurate foresight, \u201cGetting Bhutto killed can generate the kind of pressure that could result in permanently putting the Pakistani military on a back foot, giving Washington enough room to push for installing a new pliant leadership in Islamabad.\u201d He observed that, \u201cthe US is very serious this time. They cannot let Pakistan get out of their hands.\u201d[18]<\/span><\/p>\n Thus, it would appear that the new US strategic aim in Pakistan was focused on removing the Pakistani military from power, implying the need to replace Musharraf, and replace him with a new, compliant civilian leadership. This would have the effect of fracturing the Pakistani elite, threatening the Army\u2019s influence within Pakistani politics, and undertaking more direct control of Pakistan\u2019s government. <\/span><\/p>\n As if on cue, in late December it was reported that, \u201cUS special forces snatch squads are on standby to seize or disable Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a collapse of government authority or the outbreak of civil war following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.\u201d[19] <\/span><\/p>\n The New York Times ran an article in early January 2008, which reported that, \u201cPresident Bush\u2019s senior national security advisers are debating whether to expand the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan.\u201d The article stated that the new strategy was purportedly in response to increased reports of Al-Qaeda and Taliban activity within Pakistan, which \u201care intensifying efforts there to destabilize the Pakistani government.\u201d Bush\u2019s National Security team supposedly organized this effort in response to Bhutto\u2019s assassination 10 days previously.[20] <\/span><\/p>\n Officials involved in the strategy discussions said that some \u201coptions would probably involve the C.I.A. working with the military\u2019s Special Operations forces,\u201d and one official said, \u201cAfter years of focusing on Afghanistan, we think the extremists now see a chance for the big prize \u2014 creating chaos in Pakistan itself.\u201d Of pivotal importance to the strategy, as the Times reported: \u201cCritics said more direct American military action would be ineffective, anger the Pakistani Army and increase support for the militants.\u201d[21] Perhaps this is not simply a \u201cside-effect\u201d of the proposed strategy, but in fact, part of the strategy. <\/span><\/p>\n As one prominent Pakistani political and military analyst pointed out, raids into Pakistan would expand anger and \u201cprompt a powerful popular backlash\u201d against the Pakistani government, losing popular support.[22] However, as I previously stated, this might be the intention, as this would ultimately make the government more dependent upon the United States, and thus, more subservient. <\/span><\/p>\n On September 3, 2008, it was reported that a commando raid by US Special Forces was launched in Pakistan, which killed between 15 and 20 people, including women and children. The Special Forces were accompanied by five U.S. helicopters for the duration of the operation.[23] <\/span><\/p>\n In February of 2009, it was reported that, \u201cMore than 70 United States military advisers and technical specialists are secretly working in Pakistan to help its armed forces battle Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the country\u2019s lawless tribal areas.\u201d So not only are U.S. Special Forces invading Pakistani territory; but now US military advisers are secretly advising the Pakistani Army on its own operations, and the advisers are themselves primary made up of Special Forces soldiers. They provide the Pakistani Army \u201cwith intelligence and advising on combat tactics,\u201d and make up a secret command run by US Central Command and Special Operations Command (presumably JSOC \u2013 Joint Special Operations Command).[24] <\/span><\/p>\n In May of 2009, it was reported that, \u201cthe U.S. is sending Special Forces teams into one of Pakistan’s most violent regions as part of a push to accelerate the training of the Pakistani military and make it a more effective ally in the fight against insurgents there.\u201d The Special Forces were deploying to two training camps in the province of Baluchistan, and \u201cwill focus on training Pakistan’s Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force responsible for battling the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.\u201d Further, the project \u201cis a joint effort with the U.K.,\u201d which helps \u201cfund the training, although it is unclear if British military personnel would take part in the initiative. British officials have been pushing for such an effort for several years.\u201d[25] <\/span><\/p>\n In December of 2009 it was revealed that, \u201cAmerican special forces have conducted multiple clandestine raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas as part of a secret war in the border region where Washington is pressing to expand its drone assassination programme,\u201d which was revealed by a former NATO officer. He said these incursions had occurred between 2003 and 2008, indicating they go even further back than US military documents stipulate. The source further revealed that, \u201cthe Pakistanis were kept entirely in the dark about it. It was one of those things we wouldn’t confirm officially with them.\u201d Further, as the source noted, British \u201cSAS soldiers have been active in the province\u201d of Bolochistan in 2002 and 2003 and \u201cpossibly beyond.\u201d[26]<\/span><\/p>\n The \u201cBalkanization\u201d of Pakistan: Blaming the Pakistanis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Selig S. Harrison is a director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy, senior scholar of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, former senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and former journalist and correspondent. \u201cHis reputation for giving \u2018early warning\u2019 of foreign policy crises was well established during his career as a foreign correspondent.\u00a0 <\/span>In his study of foreign reporting, Between Two Worlds, John Hohenberg, former secretary of the Pulitzer Prize Board, cited Harrison\u2019s prediction of the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war eighteen months before it happened.\u201d Further, \u201cMore than a year before the Russians invaded Afghanistan, Harrison warned of this possibility in one of his frequent contributions to the influential journal Foreign Policy.\u201d[27] <\/span><\/p>\n On February 1, 2008, Selig Harrison threw his renowned \u201cpredictive\u201d abilities on Pakistan in an op-ed for the New York Times in the run-up to the Pakistani elections. He started by stating that, \u201cWhatever the outcome of the Pakistani elections, now scheduled for Feb. 18, the existing multiethnic Pakistani state is not likely to survive for long unless it is radically restructured.\u201d Harrison then went on to explain that Pakistan would likely break up along ethnic lines; with the Pashtuns, concentrated in the northwestern tribal areas, the Sindhis in the southeast uniting with the Baluch tribesmen in the southwest, with the Punjab \u201crump state\u201d of Pakistan.[28] <\/span><\/p>\n The Pashtuns in the north, \u201cwould join with their ethnic brethren across the Afghan border (some 40 million of them combined) to form an independent \u2018Pashtunistan\u2019,\u201d and the Sindhis \u201cnumbering 23 million, would unite with the six million Baluch tribesmen in the southwest to establish a federation along the Arabian Sea from India to Iran,\u201d presumably named Baluchistan; while the rump state of Pakistan would remain Punjabi dominated and in control of the nuclear weapons. Selig Harrison explained that prior to partition from India, which led to the creation of the Pakistani state in 1947, Pashtun, Sindhi and Baluch ethnicities had \u201cresist[ed] Punjabi domination for centuries,\u201d and suddenly:<\/span><\/p>\n they found themselves subjected to Punjabi-dominated military regimes that have appropriated many of the natural resources in the minority provinces \u2014 particularly the natural gas deposits in the Baluch areas \u2014 and siphoned off much of the Indus River\u2019s waters as they flow through the Punjab. <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0The resulting Punjabi-Pashtun animosity helps explain why the United States is failing to get effective Pakistani cooperation in fighting terrorists. The Pashtuns living along the Afghan border are happy to give sanctuary from Punjabi forces to the Taliban, which is composed primarily of fellow Pashtuns, and to its Qaeda friends.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Pashtun civilian casualties resulting from Pakistani and American air strikes on both sides of the border are breeding a potent underground Pashtun nationalist movement. Its initial objective is to unite all Pashtuns in Pakistan, now divided among political jurisdictions, into a unified province. In time, however, its leaders envisage full nationhood.<\/span><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n … The Baluch people, for their part, have been waging intermittent insurgencies since their forced incorporation into Pakistan in 1947. In the current warfare Pakistani forces are widely reported to be deploying American-supplied aircraft and intelligence equipment that was intended for use in Afghan border areas. Their victims are forging military links with Sindhi nationalist groups that have been galvanized into action by the death of Benazir Bhutto, a Sindhi hero as was her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.[29]<\/span><\/p>\n This passage is very revealing of the processes and perceptions surrounding \u201cBalkanization\u201d and \u201cdestabilization.\u201d What I mean by this, is that historically and presently, imperial powers would often use ethnic groups against each other in a strategy of divide and conquer, in order \u201cto keep the barbarians from coming together\u201d and dominate the region. <\/span><\/p>\n Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in his 1997 book, \u201cThe Grand Chessboard,\u201d that, \u201cGeopolitics has moved from the regional to the global dimension, with preponderance over the entire Eurasian continent serving as the central basis for global primacy.\u201d[30] Brzezinski then gave a masterful explanation of the American global strategy, which placed it into a firm imperialistic context:<\/span><\/p>\n To put it in a terminology that hearkens back to the more brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.[31] <\/span><\/p>\n While imperial powers manipulate, and historically, even create the ethnic groups within regions and nations, the West portrays conflict in such regions as being the product of these \u201cethnic\u201d or \u201ctribal\u201d rivalries. This perception of the East (Asia and the Middle East) as well as Africa is referred to as Orientalism or Eurocentrism: meaning it generally portrays the East (and\/or Africa) as \u201cthe Other\u201d: inherently different and often barbaric. This prejudiced perspective is prevalent in Western academic, media, and policy circles. This perspective serves a major purpose: dehumanizing a people in a region that an imperial power seeks to dominate, which allows the hegemon to manipulate the people and divide them against each other, while framing them as \u201cbackwards\u201d and \u201cbarbaric,\u201d which in turn, justifies the Western imperial power exerting hegemony and control over the region; to \u201cprotect\u201d the people from themselves. <\/span><\/p>\n Historically and presently, Western empires have divided people against each other, blamed the resulting conflict on the people themselves, and thus justified their control over both the people, and the region they occupy. This was the strategy employed in major recent geopolitical conflicts such as the breakup of Yugoslavia and the Rwandan genocide. In both cases, Western imperial ambitions were met through exacerbating ethnic rivalries, providing financial, technical, and military aid and training to various factions; thus, spreading violent conflict, war, and genocide. In both cases, Western, and primarily American strategic interests were met through an increased presence militarily, pushing out other major imperial and powerful rivals, as well as increasing Western access to key economics resources. <\/span><\/p>\n This is the lens through which we must view the unfolding situation in Pakistan. However, the situation in Pakistan presents a far greater potential for conflict and devastation than either Yugoslavia or Rwanda. In short, the potential strategy of \u201cBalkanization\u201d and destabilization of Pakistan could dwarf any major global conflict in the past few decades. It\u2019s sheer population of 187 million people, proximity to two major regional wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, its strategic location as neighbor to India, China, and Iran with access to the Indian Ocean, and its nuclear arsenal, combine to make Pakistan the potential trigger for a much wider regional and possibly global war. The destabilization of Pakistan has the potential to be the greatest geopolitical catastrophe since World War II. <\/span><\/p>\n Thus, Selig Harrison\u2019s op-ed in the New York Times in which he describes the \u201clikely\u201d breakup of Pakistan along ethnic lines as a result of \u201cethnic differences\u201d must be viewed in the wider context of geopolitical ambitions. His article lays the foundation both for the explanation of a potential breakup, and thus the \u201cjustification\u201d for Western intervention in the conflict. His \u201cpredictive\u201d capacities as a seasoned journalist can be alternatively viewed as pre-emptive imperial propaganda. <\/span><\/p>\n Fracturing Pakistan<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n The war in Afghanistan is inherently related to the situation in Pakistan. From the days of the Afghan-Soviet war in the 1980s, arms and money were flowing through Pakistan to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan. During the civil war that followed, Pakistan armed and financed the Taliban, which eventually took power. When the U.S. and NATO initially attacked Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, this was primarily achieved through cooperation with Pakistan. When the war theatre was re-named \u201cAfPak,\u201d the role of Pakistan, however, was formally altered. While the previous few years had seen the implementation of a strategy of destabilizing Pakistan, once the \u201cAfPak\u201d war theatre was established, Pakistan ceased to be as much of a conduit or proxy state and became a target.<\/span><\/p>\n In September of 2008, the editor of Indian Defence Review wrote an article explaining that a stable Pakistan is not in India\u2019s interests: \u201cWith Pakistan on the brink of collapse due to massive internal as well as international contradictions, it is matter of time before it ceases to exist.\u201d He explained that Pakistan\u2019s collapse would bring \u201cmultiple benefits\u201d to India, including preventing China from gaining a major port in the Indian Ocean, which is in the mutual interest of the United States. The author explained that this would be a \u201csevere jolt\u201d to China\u2019s expansionist aims, and further, \u201cIndia\u2019s access to Central Asian energy routes will open up.\u201d[32] <\/span><\/p>\n In August of 2009, Foreign Policy Journal published a report of an exclusive interview they held with former Pakistani ISI chief Lieutenant General Hamid Gul, who was Director General of the powerful intelligence services (ISI) between 1987 and 1989, at a time in which it was working closely with the CIA to fund and arm the Mujahideen. Once a close ally of the US, he is now considered extremely controversial and the US even recommended the UN to put him on the international terrorist list. Gul explained that he felt that the American people have not been told the truth about 9\/11, and that the 9\/11 Commission was a \u201ccover up,\u201d pointing out that, \u201cThey [the American government] haven\u2019t even proved the case that 9\/11 was done by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.\u201d He said that the real reasons for the war on Afghanistan were that:<\/span><\/p>\n the U.S. wanted to \u201creach out to the Central Asian oilfields\u201d and \u201copen the door there\u201d, which \u201cwas a requirement of corporate America, because the Taliban had not complied with their desire to allow an oil and gas pipeline to pass through Afghanistan. UNOCAL is a case in point. They wanted to keep the Chinese out. They wanted to give a wider security shield to the state of Israel, and they wanted to include this region into that shield. And that\u2019s why they were talking at that time very hotly about \u2018greater Middle East\u2019. They were redrawing the map.\u201d[33]<\/span><\/p>\n He also stated that part of the reason for going into Afghanistan was \u201cto go for Pakistan\u2019s nuclear capability,\u201d as the U.S. \u201csigned this strategic deal with India, and this was brokered by Israel. So there is a nexus now between Washington, Tel Aviv, and New Delhi.\u201d When he was asked about the Pakistani Taliban, which the Pakistani government was being pressured to fight, and where the financing for that group came from; Gul stated:<\/span><\/p>\n Yeah, of course they are getting it from across the Durand line, from Afghanistan. And the Mossad is sitting there, RAW is sitting there \u2014 the Indian intelligence agency \u2014 they have the umbrella of the U.S. And now they have created another organization which is called RAMA. It may be news to you that very soon this intelligence agency \u2014 of course, they have decided to keep it covert \u2014 but it is Research and Analysis Milli Afghanistan. That\u2019s the name. The Indians have helped create this organization, and its job is mainly to destabilize Pakistan.[34] <\/span><\/p>\n He explained that the Chief of Staff of the Afghan Army had told him that he had gone to India to offer the Indians five bases in Afghanistan, three of which are along the Pakistani border. Gul was asked a question as to why, if the West was supporting the TTP (Pakistani Taliban), would a CIA drone have killed the leader of the TTP. Gul explained that while Pakistan was fighting directly against the TTP leader, Baitullah Mehsud, the Pakistani government would provide the Americans where Mehsud was, \u201cthree times the Pakistan intelligence tipped off America, but they did not attack him.\u201d So why all of a sudden did they attack? <\/span><\/p>\n Because there were some secret talks going on between Baitullah Mehsud and the Pakistani military establishment. They wanted to reach a peace agreement, and if you recall there is a long history of our tribal areas, whenever a tribal militant has reached a peace agreement with the government of Pakistan, Americans have without any hesitation struck that target.<\/span><\/p>\n … there was some kind of a deal which was about to be arrived at \u2014 they may have already cut a deal. I don\u2019t know. I don\u2019t have enough information on that. But this is my hunch, that Baitullah was killed because now he was trying to reach an agreement with the Pakistan army. And that\u2019s why there were no suicide attacks inside Pakistan for the past six or seven months.[35]<\/span><\/p>\n An article in one of Canada\u2019s national magazines, Macleans, reported on an interview with a Pakistani ISI spy, who claimed that India\u2019s intelligence services, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), have \u201ctens of thousands of RAW agents in Pakistan.\u201d Many officials inside Pakistan were convinced that, \u201cIndia\u2019s endgame is nothing less than the breakup of Pakistan. And the RAW is no novice in that area. In the 1960s, it was actively involved in supporting separatists in Bangladesh, at the time East Pakistan. The eventual victory of Bangladeshi nationalism in 1971 was in large part credited to the support the RAW gave the secessionists.\u201d[36]\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Further, there were Indian consulates set up in Kandahar, the area of Afghanistan where Canadian troops are located, and which is strategically located next to the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which is home to a virulent separatist movement, of which Pakistan claims is being supported by India. Macleans reported on the conclusions by Michel Chossudovsky, economics professor at University of Ottawa, that, \u201cthe region\u2019s massive gas and oil reserves are of strategic interest to the U.S. and India. A gas pipeline slated to be built from Iran to India, two countries that already enjoy close ties, would run through Baluchistan. The Baluch separatist movement, which is also active in Iran, offers an ideal proxy for both the U.S. and India to ensure their interests are met.\u201d[37] <\/span><\/p>\n Even an Afghan government adviser told the media that India was using Afghan territory to destabilize Pakistan.[38] In September of 2009, the Pakistan Daily reported that captured members and leaders of the Pakistani Taliban have admitted to being trained and armed by India through RAW or RAMA in Afghanistan in order to fight the Pakistani Army.[39] <\/span><\/p>\n Foreign Policy magazine in February of 2009 quoted a former intelligence official as saying, \u201cThe Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan,\u201d and that, \u201cthe same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there.\u201d[40] <\/span><\/p>\n The Council on Foreign Relations published a backgrounder report on RAW, India\u2019s intelligence agency, founded in 1968 \u201cprimarily to counter China’s influence, [however] over time it has shifted its focus to India’s other traditional rival, Pakistan.\u201d For over three decades both Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been involved in covert operations against one another. One of RAW\u2019s main successes was its covert operations in East Pakistan, now known as Bangladesh, which \u201caimed at fomenting independence sentiment\u201d and ultimately led to the separation of Bangladesh by directly funding, arming and training the Pakistani separatists. Further, as the Council on Foreign Relations noted, \u201cFrom the early days, RAW had a secret liaison relationship with the Mossad, Israel’s external intelligence agency.\u201d[41]<\/span><\/p>\n Since RAW was founded in 1968, it had developed close ties with the Afghan intelligence agency, KHAD, primarily to do with intelligence sharing on Pakistan. In the 1980s, while Pakistan was funding, arming and training the Afghan Mujahideen with the support of Saudi Arabia and the CIA, India was funding two covert groups which orchestrated terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, which included a \u201clow-grade but steady campaign of bombings in major Pakistani cities, notably Karachi and Lahore.\u201d RAW has also had a close relationship with the CIA, as even six years before RAW was created, in 1962, the CIA created a covert organization made up of Tibetan refugees, which aimed to \u201cexecute deep-penetration terror operations in China.\u201d The CIA subsequently played a part in the creation of RAW. In the 1980s, while the CIA was working closely with the ISI in Pakistan, RAW, while wary of their relationship, continued to get counterterrorism training from the CIA.[42]<\/span><\/p>\n In October of 2009, the New York Times reported that the US strategy \u201cto vastly expand its aid to Pakistan, as well as the footprint of its embassy and private security contractors here, are aggravating an already volatile anti-American mood as Washington pushes for greater action by the government against the Taliban.\u201d The U.S. gave Pakistan an aid deal of $1.5 billion per year for the next five years, under the stipulation of \u201cPakistan to cease supporting terrorist groups on its soil and to ensure that the military does not interfere with civilian politics.\u201d President Zaradari accepted the proposal, making him even more unpopular in Pakistan, and further angering Pakistan\u2019s powerful military, which sees the deal as interfering in the internal affairs of the country.[43] <\/span><\/p>\n America is thus expanding its embassy and security presence within the country, as the Embassy \u201chas publicized plans for a vast new building in Islamabad for about 1,000 people, with security for some diplomats provided through a Washington-based private contracting company, DynCorp.\u201d The NYT article referred to how relations were becoming increasingly strained between Pakistan and the US, and tensions were growing within the country exponentially, as \u201cthe American presence was fueling a sense of occupation among Pakistani politicians and security officials,\u201d and several Pakistani officials stated that, \u201cthe United States was now seen as behaving in Pakistan much as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan.\u201d Futher:<\/span><\/p>\n In particular, the Pakistani military and the intelligence agencies are concerned that DynCorp is being used by Washington to develop a parallel network of security and intelligence personnel within Pakistan, officials and politicians close to the army said.<\/span><\/p>\n The concerns are serious enough that last month a local company hired by DynCorp to provide Pakistani men to be trained as security guards for American diplomats was raided by the Islamabad police. The owner of the company, the Inter-Risk Security Company, Capt. Syed Ali Ja Zaidi, was later arrested.<\/span><\/p>\n The action against Inter-Risk, apparently intended to cripple the DynCorp program, was taken on orders from the senior levels of the Pakistani government, said an official familiar with the raid, who was not authorized to speak on the record.<\/span><\/p>\n The entire workings of DynCorp within Pakistan are now under review by the Pakistani government.[44]<\/span><\/p>\n As revealed in the Wikileaks diplomatic cables, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson wrote in September of 2009 that the U.S. strategy of unilateral strikes inside Pakistan \u201crisk destabilizing the Pakistani state, alienating both the civilian government and military leadership, and provoking a broader governance crisis in Pakistan without finally achieving the goal.\u201d[45]<\/span><\/p>\n In an interview with Press TV, Hamid Gul, former Inter-Services Intelligence chief revealed more of what he sees as the US strategy in Pakistan. He explained that with the massive expansion of the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan, and alongside that, the increased security staff, the Chinese are becoming increasingly concerned with the sovereignty and security of Pakistan. He claimed that the money that the US government offered (with heavy conditions) to Pakistan, $1.5 billion every year for five years, will be spent under the direction of the Americans, and that \u201cthey are going to set up a large intelligence network inside Pakistan,\u201d and ultimately \u201cthey really want to go for Pakistan’s nuclear assets.\u201d He further claimed that the Indians are trying to destabilize Pakistan; however, he explained, this does not necessarily mean disintegrate, but rather:<\/span><\/p>\n they are trying to destabilize Pakistan at the moment so that it feels weak and economically has to go begging on its knees to Americans and ask for succor and help. And in that process they will want to expect certain concessions with regards to nuclear power and also with regards to setting up their facilities here in Pakistan.[46]<\/span><\/p>\n When he was asked what America\u2019s long-term goal was in regards to Pakistan, Gul responded that the goal:<\/span><\/p>\n for America is that they want to keep Pakistan destabilized; perhaps create a way for Baluchistan as a separate state and then create problems for Iran so that this new state will talk about greater Baluchistan… So it appears that the long-term objectives are really to fragment all these countries to an extent that they can establish a strip that would be pro-America, pro-India, pro-Israel. So this seems to be their long-term objective apart from denuclearizing Pakistan and blocking Iran’s progress in the nuclear field.[47]<\/span><\/p>\n In Part 2 of \u2018Pakistan in Pieces\u2019, I will examine the specific ways in which the American strategy of destabilization is being undertaken in Pakistan, including the waging of a secret war and the expansion of the Afghan war into Pakistani territory. In short, the military and intelligence projections for Pakistan over the next several years (discussed in the beginning of Part 1 above) are a self-fulfilling prophecy, as those very same military and intelligence agencies that predict a destabilized Pakistan and potential collapse are now undertaking strategies aimed at achieving those outcomes. <\/span><\/p>\n Notes<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [1]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>NIC, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts. The Central Intelligence Agency: December 2000: page 64<\/font><\/span> http:\/\/www.dni.gov\/nic\/NIC_globaltrend2015.html<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[2]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid, page 66.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[3]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[4]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>PTI, Pak will be failed state by 2015: CIA. The Times of India: February 13, 2005: <\/font>http:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/us\/Pak-will-be-failed-state-by-2015-CIA\/articleshow\/1019516.cms<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[5]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>NIC, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. The National Intelligence Council: November 2008: page x<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0http:\/\/www.dni.gov\/nic\/NIC_2025_project.html<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[6]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid, page 45.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[7]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid, page 65.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[8]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid, page 72.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[9]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Peter Goodspeed, Mexico, Pakistan face ‘rapid and sudden’ collapse: Pentagon. The National Post: January 15, 2009: <\/font>http:\/\/www.nationalpost.com\/news\/world\/story.html?id=1181621<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[10]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>PAUL MCGEOUGH, Warning that Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months. The Sydney Morning Herald: April 13, 2009: <\/font>http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/world\/warning-that-pakistan-is-in-danger-of-collapse-within-months-20090412-a40u.html<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[11]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Scott Lindlaw, AP: U.S. gave troops OK to enter Pakistan. USA Today: August 23, 2007: <\/font>http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/news\/world\/2007-08-23-pakistan-engagement_N.htm<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[12]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Frederick Kagan and Michael O\u2019Hanlon, Pakistan\u2019s Collapse, Our Problem. November 18, 2007: <\/font>http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/11\/18\/opinion\/18kagan.html<\/font><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0[13]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Ibid.<\/font><\/span><\/p>\nImperial Eye on Pakistan<\/h4>\n